Перегляд архіву четвер, 2 січня 2025

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jan 02 1236 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Jan 2025	208	038
03 Jan 2025	200	019
04 Jan 2025	190	024

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 3 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including the 3 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3168) peaking on January 01 at 18:17 UTC. This region has now rotated over the west limb but may still contribute to the flaring activity over the next day. A new region emerged and was numbered in the south east, SIDC Sunspot Group 358 (NOAA Active Region 3945). Additionally, a new area of fast flux emergence can also be seen in the south-western quadrant, but has yet to be numbered. SIDC Sunspot Group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944) showed some further growth while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

The CME associated to the filament eruption reported yesterday, seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data directed to the south-west from 02:20 UTC January 01, is expected to have a glancing blow at Earth from late on January 03. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Корональні діри

SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82 (both positive polarity) continue to traverse the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under the CME influence, with the interplanetary magnetic field stable at 24 nT at the start of the period before gradually decreasing 17:30 UTC January 01 to values around 12nT. The solar wind speed varied between 470 to 550 km/s. Bz was also strongly negative at the start of the period until 16:50 with a minimum value of -23 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to gradually return to nominal conditions on January 02 and 03, further enhancements are likely from late on January 03 due to the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and the glancing blow CME arrival.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached severe storm conditions (NOAA Kp 8) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC January 01. Local K index (K Bel) reached 6 (moderate storm conditions). This was due to the ongoing CME influence. After 21:00 UTC on January 01 as the CME impact began to wane, the conditions returned to active levels with one period of minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5) on January 02. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for January 02 and 03, with further isolated minor storm intervals possible on January 02 due to the ongoing waning CME influence.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, due to the high flaring probability for SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) now over the west limb a proton event over the next days cannot be excluded.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 176, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Jan 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	219
AK Chambon La Forêt	104
AK Wingst	088
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	095
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	212 - За даними 08 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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