Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 3 січня 2025

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Jan 03 1234 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Jan 2025	202	019
04 Jan 2025	194	024
05 Jan 2025	185	016

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 1 M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was an X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3184), peaking on January 03 at 11:39 UTC. This was produced by newly numbered SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) which rotated onto disk over the east solar limb during the period and had previously produced C-class flaring activity. The other most active region was SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) which produced an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3178) with peak time January 02 at 17:40 UTC. Six new regions were numbered over the period, the largest of which being SIDC Sunspot Group 359 and 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3946 and 3947 respectively). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82 (positive polarity coronal holes in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively) continue to traverse the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly enhanced under the waning CME influence, with values between 7 and 16 nT. The solar speed gradually decreased over the period, reducing from 550 km/s to around 450 km/s. Bz was mostly positive with a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to gradually return to nominal conditions on January 03, further enhancements are likely from early on January 04 due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 60 and the glancing blow CME arrival.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions (NOAA Kp 4, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for January 03 and 04, with isolated minor storm intervals possible on January 04 due to possible combined high speed stream and CME arrivals.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 208, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Jan 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	020
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	023
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	182 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду