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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Sep 20 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
20 Sep 2025	164	004
21 Sep 2025	166	014
22 Sep 2025	169	027

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours has reached moderate levels with a registered M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5521) peaking at 21:41 UTC on Sept 19. The flare was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active Regions 4216, 4222), which has developed a beta-gamma configuration of its underlying magnetic field and has exhibited some decay. A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk with two regions rotating from over the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 637 (NOAA Active Region 4220) has decreased its complexity and is currently classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. It remains the largest region on the visible disc followed by SIDC Sunspot Group 640 (NOAA Active Region 4217) and SIDC Sunspot Group 607 (NOAA Active Region 4225), both classified as magnetic type beta. Regardless of their size and the complexity of SIDC Sunspot Group 637, these regions have remained quiet and the flaring activity was dominated by SIDC Sunspot Group 621, SIDC Sunspot Group 642 (NOAA Active Region 4221) and SIDC Sunspot Group 643 (NOAA Active Region 4223). The latter regions has exhibited decay is currently classified as magnetic type alpha. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely further M-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A mid-latitude negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 126) which first crossed the central meridian on Sept 19 continues to reside there. A high speed stream emanating from this coronal hole is expected to reach the Earth possibly in the UTC afternoon of Sept 21.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was mostly below 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, remained rather weak with a maximum of 4 nT and a minimum Bz component of - 3 nT. The B field phi angle remained in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at background slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours and registered enhancements thereafter with an expected high speed stream arrival associated with a negative polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 126.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be predominantly quiet over the next 24 hours. Active conditions with possible minor storm levels might be reached later on Sept 21 and on Sep 22 with an expected high speed stream arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 10 MeV GOES electron flux has been entirely above the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 to 48 hours, after which the electron fluence is expected to return to nominal levels.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 161, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 19 Sep 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	002
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	147 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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