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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2025 Oct 17 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Oct 2025	160	018
18 Oct 2025	162	023
19 Oct 2025	164	021

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5811) peaking on October 17 at 01:28 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This is the most complex on disk and was responsible for all of the M-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248), another complex region on disk, was stable. A new region rotated over the east solar limb and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active region 4256). The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet and either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

The partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) directed the west that was reported yesterday, first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 15:00 UTC on October 15 has been further analysed and a glancing blow may be possible from late on October 18. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Корональні діри

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (extended equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) continues to transit the central meridian since October 16.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with a solar wind speed of around 400 km/s and maximum magnetic field strength of 5nT. From 09:00 UTC October 17 a jump in the magnetic field strength was observed with values up to 14 nT. This is likely the influence of a glancing glow from one of the CMEs from October 13. During this time, the solar wind speed remain around 400 km/s. Over the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed due to the passing of the current weak magnetic field structure and another possible glancing blow CME arrival on October 18 from the partial halo CME observed on October 15.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally and locally (Kp 1-3, K Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on October 17, with periods of minor storm conditions (Kp 5) possible on October 18 in response to the possible CME arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase related to any high-level flaring, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246).

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 119, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Oct 2025

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	133 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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