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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2026 Feb 02 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Feb 2026	162	007
03 Feb 2026	164	007
04 Feb 2026	166	035

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was very high over the past 24 hours, with 5 X-class flares and 16 M-class flares identified. They originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366), currently located at N13E34. It has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The first X-class flare was an X1.0 one (SIDC Flare 6796) peaking on February 01 at 12:33 UTC. The second one and largest, was an X8.1 one (SIDC Flare 6808), peaked on February 01 at 23:57 UTC, two more followed shortly after (X1.5 at 00:22 UTC and X2.8 at 00:36 UTC, February 2). The last X-class flare occurred at 08:14 UTC on February 2, with a peak at X1.6. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and more X-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on February 2 by LASCO C2, directed to the northeast, associated with the X8.1 flare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has an angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A preliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s, giving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will be updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations results are obtained). There is still no coronagraph data corresponding to the last X-flare, so another associated CME cannot be discarded.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Simmilar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled in the last 24 hours (Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold int he last 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 128, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Feb 2026

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	104 - За даними 15 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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