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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2026 Feb 03 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Feb 2026	174	007
04 Feb 2026	176	007
05 Feb 2026	178	026

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Numerous M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13E20. This sunspot group has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M7.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6842) peaking on February 03 at 07:01 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366). Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. After compiling the latest observations and simulation results, the arrival time to the Earth of the CME from 2 February has been recalculated to 5 February around 6:00 UT.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) will cross the central meridian after that, becoming better magnetically connected with the Earth and increasing the risk of a proton storm.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 157, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Feb 2026

Число Вольфа, Катанія	185
Сонячний потік 10 см	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	132 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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