SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0112Z WITH ASSOCIATED MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS EVENT WAS REGION 8256 (S24W33) WHICH GREW CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH STILL SMALL IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION WENT FROM THREE VISIBLE SPOTS YESTERDAY TO 24 TODAY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PLAGE FIELD WHILE PRODUCING THREE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. RECENT MAG MAPS SUGGEST A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8253 (N17W74) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION 8256. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ALREADY EXIST IN THIS REGION AND FURTHER GROWTH IS EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03/00-03Z.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY LATE 4 JUL THROUGH 5 JUL AS A RESULT OF THE C6/SF ON 1 JUL.

  觀測的       03 JUL 128
  預測的   04 JUL-06 JUL  128/130/130
  90天平均值        03 JUL 108

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  015/015-015/012-012/012