太陽活動報表

查看星期五, 24 7月 1998歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 1998 Jul 24 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 205 在 24 JUL 1998 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 23-2100Z到 24-2100Z的活動分析

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8280 (S23E40) AT 24/0338UT. REGION 8280 REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AND RETAINED A SIMPLE BIPOLAR MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8282 (N32E43) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.

IB. 太陽活動預報

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM EITHER REGION 8280 OR 8282.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 23-2100Z 至 24-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACE NEAR-REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED THE ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO A HIGH SPEED STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 23/2240UT, THEN VARIED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

THE CORONAL HOLE-RELATED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS TOMORROW. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

III. 事件機率 25 JUL 至 27 JUL

M級	25%	25%	25%
X級	05%	05%	05%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	GREEN

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       24 JUL 125
  預測的   25 JUL-27 JUL  128/130/132
  90天平均值        24 JUL 108

V. 地磁 A 指數

OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  022/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  012/015-010/010-007/007

VI. 地磁活動機率 25 JUL 至 27 JUL

A. 中緯度
可見	20%	15%	10%
小風暴	05%	05%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	30%	20%	15%
小風暴	05%	05%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BECOME THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.

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