SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH WITH A SINGLE X3.9 FLARE AT 19/2145 FROM REGION 8307 (N32E60). THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV SWEEP INDICATING A SHOCK WITH A SPEED OF 1400 KM/S +/-200 KM/S. REGION 8310 (N23E66) AND 8311 (N19E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8307 HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH ONTO THE DISK THAT A RELIABLE CLASSIFICATION HAS BEEN PERFORMED. IT IS CLASSIFIED AS A EKO BETA DELTA WITH 8 SPOTS AND AN AREA OF 440 MILLIONTHS. THE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED AS THE SPOT MOVES CLOSER TO CENTER DISK.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATE THAT A SMALL, SLOW SHOCK PASSED BY EARTH OVER THE LAST 20 HOURS. ENHANCED DENSITY, SLOW BULK SPEED, AND SEMI-SMOOTH TRANSITION OF BZ FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS CONCLUSION.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM AT HIGHER LATITUDES.

  觀測的       20 AUG 139
  預測的   21 AUG-23 AUG  142/146/150
  90天平均值        20 AUG 115

OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG  025/020-020/018-015/010