SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9154 (S19W07) CONTINUED IN A GRADUAL GROWTH PHASE AND REMAINED THE LARGEST AND MOST FLARE PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. IT PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C6/SF AT 05/0008 UTC. REGION 9149 (N13W35) SHOWED SIGNS OF MINOR DECAY AND PRODUCED AN ISOLATED SUBFLARE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. SOHO/LASCO IMAGES INDICATED A PARTIAL-HALO CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER (32-DEGREE EXTENT, N13W38).

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9154 MAY PRODUCE AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR 7 - 8 SEPTEMBER DUE TO AN EXPECTED CME PASSAGE AT EARTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE OF 4 SEPTEMBER. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

  觀測的       05 SEP 180
  預測的   06 SEP-08 SEP  185/190/190
  90天平均值        05 SEP 181

OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  015/012-030/030-030/030