太陽活動報表

查看星期一, 2 10月 2000歷史檔案

前一張自轉面前一天月曆

下一天下一張自轉面

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2000 Oct 02 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 276 在 02 Oct 2000 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 01-2100Z到 02-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9177 (N31W54) produced an M1/1n flare at 02/1801Z; another uncorrelated M1 occurred at 02/0013Z. Region 9176 (S09E05) produced a C4/Sf at 02/0257Z that was followed by a faint CME seen in LASCO imagery. New regions 9181 (S32E64) and 9182 (S03E72) were numbered today.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 01-2100Z 至 02-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions predominated, with unsettled to active conditions from 12Z to 21Z during a prolonged period of southward Bz.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming on day two and three. Effects of a recurrent coronal hole are expected to begin tomorrow. One of the many solar events of the past two days, including today's CME, could bring transient related activity on day two and three.

III. 事件機率 03 Oct 至 05 Oct

M級	50%	50%	50%
X級	05%	05%	05%
質子	05%	05%	05%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       02 Oct 203
  預測的   03 Oct-05 Oct  200/200/190
  90天平均值        02 Oct 183

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/013
  估算值     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  012/014
  預測的    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  012/012-015/015-015/020

VI. 地磁活動機率 03 Oct 至 05 Oct

A. 中緯度
可見	25%	25%	25%
小風暴	10%	15%	15%
特大強風暴	01%	05%	05%

B. 高緯度
可見	25%	25%	25%
小風暴	15%	20%	20%
特大強風暴	05%	10%	10%

VII. Comments Effective 2 Oct 2000, SEC will issue its text products in mixed case vs. all upper case. This change will be visible on all SEC product delivery systems except for teletype circuits. Only the case of the text in each product will change, not the format or spacing within the product. For details see our website at SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間