Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC. M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region 9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41) exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period. Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result in above-threshold events during the period.

  觀測的       14 Jan 229
  預測的   15 Jan-17 Jan  235/240/240
  90天平均值        14 Jan 224

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/011
  估算值     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  007/008-007/005-010/008