太陽活動報表

查看星期五, 14 6月 2002歷史檔案

前一張自轉面前一天月曆

下一天下一張自轉面

本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 165 在 14 Jun 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 13-2100Z到 14-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity was at low levels. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50), and Region 1 (N20E70). Please refer to the attached plain message for a region numbering discussion. Region 9987 (S16W86) produced a C1 flare at 14/1020 UTC. Region 9991(S21W21) has remained relatively stable. New Region 1 has shown some surging but due its limb proximity prevents a complete analysis.

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 9987 and 9991 have the potential of C- and low level M-class events. Old Region 9963 (N17, L= 318) is due to return on day two of the forecast period.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 13-2100Z 至 14-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects.

III. 事件機率 15 Jun 至 17 Jun

M級	20%	25%	30%
X級	01%	01%	01%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       14 Jun 131
  預測的   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/140/145
  90天平均值        14 Jun 179

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/011
  估算值     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/008
  預測的    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/008

VI. 地磁活動機率 15 Jun 至 17 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	20%	15%	10%
小風暴	10%	05%	01%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	25%	20%	15%
小風暴	10%	05%	01%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

PlAIN: This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間