太陽活動報表

查看星期六, 15 6月 2002歷史檔案

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本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。

太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理

美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告

SDF 編號 166 在 15 Jun 2002 上以 2200Z 發行

IA. 太陽活動區域和 14-2100Z到 15-2100Z的活動分析

Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1 (N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997 (N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and Region 4 (S16E10).

IB. 太陽活動預報

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare exists for the period.

IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 14-2100Z 至 15-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.

IIB. 地球物理活動預報

The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.

III. 事件機率 16 Jun 至 18 Jun

M級	25%	30%	30%
X級	01%	01%	01%
質子	01%	01%	01%
碳核算金融聯盟	green

IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量

  觀測的       15 Jun 135
  預測的   16 Jun-18 Jun  140/145/145
  90天平均值        15 Jun 178

V. 地磁 A 指數

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/007
  估算值     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  003/006
  預測的    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/008-005/008-005/008

VI. 地磁活動機率 16 Jun 至 18 Jun

A. 中緯度
可見	15%	10%	10%
小風暴	01%	01%	01%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

B. 高緯度
可見	20%	15%	15%
小風暴	05%	05%	05%
特大強風暴	01%	01%	01%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, we are steadily approaching region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather operations is to go through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.

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