Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 66 (N14W10) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0605 UTC. It continued to grow at a gradual pace. Region 67 (N33E04) produced an isolated C-class subflare as it continued to grow at a gradual pace. Region 69 (S07E24) produced occasional C-class subflares as it continued to grow in size and magnetic complexity. It is now large enough to be a naked eye sunspot and contains a very strong delta configuration.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Isolated low level M-class flares are expected. There is a chance for an isolated major flare from Region 69.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during most of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at geosynchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC ended at 14/1950 UTC. The maximum for this event was 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels near the start of the period following yesterday's long-duration M2/partial-halo CME event. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on 17 August as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 18 August. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.

  觀測的       15 Aug 210
  預測的   16 Aug-18 Aug  215/215/220
  90天平均值        15 Aug 166

  觀測的 Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/015
  估算值     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  015/015
  預測的    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  025/030-015/015-010/010