查看星期三, 11 9月 2002歷史檔案
太陽活動報表
本報告中提到的任何太陽耀斑都有太空天氣預報中心(SWPC) 應用的比例因子。由於 SWPC 比例因子，據報導太陽耀斑比科學質量數據小 42%。比例因子已從我們存檔的太陽耀斑資料中刪除，以反映真實的物理單位。
太陽地球物理活動報告 2002 Sep 11 2200 UTC由美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 NOAA 及 太空天氣預測中心 SWPC 複製並編製，並由 ©SpaceWeatherLive.com 處理
美國空軍/美國國家海洋暨大氣總署太陽與地球物理活動聯合報告
SDF 編號 254 在 11 Sep 2002 上以 2200Z 發行IA. 太陽活動區域和 10-2100Z到 11-2100Z的活動分析 Solar activity has been moderate. Region 105 (S09E28)
produced the largest event of the period, an M2/2b flare at 11/0735
UTC with an associated tenflare (230 sfu). Region 107 (N11E30) was
a source of several C-class flares during the period, and Region 100
(S19W64) also produced a C-class flare. Region 103 (N14W33) has
remained quiescent, but appears somewhat more compact today and
retains moderate magnetic complexity.
IB. 太陽活動預報
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels for the next three days. Region 105 is a likely
source of further M-class activity. Regions 103 and 107 may become
more active during the period and could produce M-class flares as
well.
IIA. 地球物理活動摘要 10-2100Z 至 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field conditions have ranged from quiet to major storm
levels. Onset of coronal hole high speed stream effects have been
evident since about 11/0900 UTC, and the single period of major
storm conditions observed at higher latitudes occurred shortly
thereafter. The remainder of the day had conditions in the
unsettled to minor storm range.
IIB. 地球物理活動預報
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours.
Isolated minor storm conditions may also occur, especially at higher
latitudes. Conditions are expected to be in the quiet to unsettled
range by the end of the forecast period.
III. 事件機率 12 Sep 至 14 Sep
| M級 | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X級 | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| 質子 | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| 碳核算金融聯盟 | green | ||
IV. 彭迪克頓10.7厘米通量
觀測的 11 Sep 216 預測的 12 Sep-14 Sep 220/220/225 90天平均值 11 Sep 173
V. 地磁 A 指數
觀測的 Afr/Ap 10 Sep 014/024 估算值 Afr/Ap 11 Sep 020/025 預測的 Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 018/018-015/018-012/015
VI. 地磁活動機率 12 Sep 至 14 Sep
| A. 中緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| 小風暴 | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. 高緯度 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 可見 | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| 小風暴 | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| 特大強風暴 | 05% | 05% | 01% |
所有時間均採用 UTC 時間
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