查看星期五, 12 4月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

地磁

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
12 Apr 2013	140	009
13 Apr 2013	143	076
14 Apr 2013	146	022

公告

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：075，基於09個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 11 Apr 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	120
10厘米太陽通量	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	086 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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