查看星期六, 13 4月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Apr 13 1248 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

地磁

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

太陽質子

Warning condition

	10公分通量	Ap
13 Apr 2013	140	039
14 Apr 2013	142	045
15 Apr 2013	143	008

公告

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 43 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 respectively) show the signs of decay, although these two active regions (as well as Catania sunspot group 45, NOAA AR 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. M3.3 flare was detected on April 12 peaking at 20:38 UT in the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 1718). It was not associated with a CME. The delta sunspot in the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) does not exist anymore, so an X-flare (and an SEP event) is not very likely (although an Earth-directed CME remains possible). We expect further flaring activity on the M-level, with a non-negligible chance for an isolated X-class flare. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is currently below the SEP event threshold, although it still exceeds significantly the background level. In such a situation, a relatively small increase of the proton flux at the expected shock arrival may lead to crossing the SEP event threshold again. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (expected later today) of the interplanetary disturbance produced by the halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：080，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 12 Apr 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	125
10厘米太陽通量	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	081 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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