查看星期日, 14 4月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Apr 14 1245 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

地磁

Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Warning condition

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Apr 2013	123	023
15 Apr 2013	121	017
16 Apr 2013	119	004

公告

NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 (Catania numbers 40 and 43) are decaying, although maintaining their beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 1721 (Catania number 45) decayed also and is now classified as beta active region. No flare above the C2 level occurred during the past 24 hours. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, also from the rapidly emerging NOAA AR 1723 (no Catania number yet). An isolated M-class flare is not excluded. Due to two beta-gamma active regions in the western hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for protons, although their flux at energies above 10 MeV continues to decrease. The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with speed around 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude around 12 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz has been almost exclusively positive after the shock arrival, so the geomagnetic conditions remained at the quiet to unsettled level. The ICME driving the shock has not arrived yet. If it arrives, a geomagnetic disturbance only up to the minor storm level (K = 5) can be expected due to low ICME speed.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：076，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Apr 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	082 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀