查看星期三, 1 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 01 1206 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
01 May 2013	160	016
02 May 2013	163	007
03 May 2013	163	007

公告

We expect active conditions (M-class flares likely) to prevail for the next 48 hours. NOAA ARs 1730 and 1731 can still produce an isolated flare of that magnitude. C-class flares are expected from NOAA ARs 1732 and 1734. On May 1st, NOAA AR 1730 produced a C9.6 flare at 01:26 UT (peak time) and a C5.5 flare at 0729 UT (peak time), but no associated CME can be observed. In contrast, a rather wide CME occurred on May 1st around 0248 UT (LASCO C2 observations) on the East limb, but it is a backside event and is not geoeffective. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet within the next 48 hours, with isolated periods of active conditions. Current conditions are unsettled to active at planetary level (Kp=4) and at local level (K=4 at Dourbes between 06 and 09 UT). ACE data show, during the last 18 hours, a smooth decrease of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field down to -10 nT, with stronger variations between 0 and -10 nT from 06 UT onward. The source of this activity is not clear at the moment.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：098，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 30 Apr 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	105 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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