查看星期四, 2 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 02 1252 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
02 May 2013	155	010
03 May 2013	155	005
04 May 2013	152	001

公告

An M1.1 class flare occurred on May 2nd, at 0510 UT (peak time), in NOAA AR 1731, accompanied by a type II burst and a CME. This region still has the potential for an extra M class flare in the next 24 to 48 hours, and we therefore expect active conditions for this time period. NOAA AR 1730 is slightly less complex but an isolated M flare is not excluded. C flares are expected from NOAA ARs 1732 and 1734. The bulk of the CME from this morning is heading northward, but its southern flank might pass by the Earth. We expect an arrival in the morning of May 6th, triggering active to possibly minor storm conditions. For the next 48 hours, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Conditions were mostly active during the past 24 hours, with several periods at K=4 at planetary levels. This corresponds, as observed by ACE, to a period of negative Bz component down to -10 nT, and to a slight increase in speed, which might be linked to a small coronal hole to the west of NOAA AR 1731.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：069，基於09個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 May 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	028
估計地磁Ap指數	025
估計國際太陽黑子數	096 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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