查看星期五, 10 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 10 1244 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
10 May 2013	133	006
11 May 2013	133	007
12 May 2013	128	017

公告

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring eleven C flares and one M3.9 flare. The M flare was produced by AR 11744 (which also released the majority of the C flares) and had its peak around 00:57 UT on May 10. More C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a good chance for an M flare, especially from NOAA AR 11744. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest by AIA imagery around 17h UT on May 9. A bright associated CME was registered by LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A and B around 19h UT. This CME and its shock wave will likely not reach Earth. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has been steady around 4 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 480 and to 430 km/s. A further decrease is expected, up to May 12, when a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp = 1) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 10 to 12, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) on May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：081，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 09 May 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	140
10厘米太陽通量	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	077 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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