查看星期三, 15 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 15 1238 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
15 May 2013	150	017
16 May 2013	152	014
17 May 2013	153	011

公告

A class X1.2 solar flare occurred today with peak time 01:48 UT, from NOAA AR 1748 which has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. It was associated with radio bursts and an increase of GOES proton flux levels, now at 5 protons/cm2-s-sr, the threshold of 10 protons/cm2-s-sr will likely be reached soon (at >=10 MeV). The increases in proton flux likely come from the CME driven shock. If the strong flares from this AR continue, the proton increases will likely be more abrupt when the magnetic connection between the flare site and the Earth is better (i.e. when the AR is in the western hemisphere). A CME was associated with the event, a shock and glancing blow can probably be expected at the Earth late on May 16 (CME speed 1700 km/s in LASCO C2). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet, but ACE data shows a disturbance starting this morning, with currently magnetic intensity close to 15 nT (northwards, so no geomagnetic effect). There is not enough data yet to discern clearly its cause, but it is likely related to the CME on May 12 (and possibly those from the two previous days related to X-flares from NOAA AR 1748). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with possible isolated minor storm periods.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：099，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 May 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	176
10厘米太陽通量	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	102 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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