查看星期四, 16 5月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 May 16 1317 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
16 May 2013	147	010
17 May 2013	149	025
18 May 2013	151	007

公告

No major flares in past 24h, the largest one was a C1.6 from NOAA AR 1748 peaking at 12:37 UT on May 15. This AR is still expected to produce major flares. NOAA AR 1745 has potential for M-class flares. The proton flux remains over the threshold of 1 protons/cm2-s-sr for the past 24h. This increase is related to the CME and X1.2 solar flare from May 15. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from unsettled to active. ACE data shows an ICME arriving at 08:00 UT on May 15, most likely corresponding to the CME of May 12. A glancing blow of the CME from May 15 can be expected in the first half of May 17, increasing geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels (estimated max K = 6).

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：139，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 15 May 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	011
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	111 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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