查看星期三, 21 8月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Aug 21 1240 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Aug 2013	135	018
22 Aug 2013	138	008
23 Aug 2013	138	003

公告

Solar activity was eruptive with a C2.2 flare as strongest flare originating from NOAA AR 1828. A faint partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 around 5h00 UT which was confirmed by STEREO A and B data. It seems to be associated to a small filament eruption located near S15E15, observed in PROBA2/SWAP and GONG H-alpha data. The CME seems to be travelling mainly to the east with a projected speed of 360 km/s. First analysis suggests a possible arrival at 25 August at 9h UT, but this will be further evaluated. We expect C-class flaring activity to continue. There is a slight chance for M-class flares, especially from NOAA active regions 1820 and 1827 that currently have a beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. ACE has observed a jump yesterday at 22h UT in all the plasma parameters jump, but not the magnetic field. This seems to be the arrival of the equatorial CH fast speed stream. Local K-index at Dourbes currently is at K=3 and Kp went up to Kp=4, due to combined effects of the fast speed stream and some influence of a flank of the CME of August 17, that possibly arrived at 2h this morning. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue and return to quiet after 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：095，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Aug 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	086 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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