查看星期四, 22 8月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Aug 22 1224 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
22 Aug 2013	125	016
23 Aug 2013	125	006
24 Aug 2013	128	026

公告

A C4.2 flare on 22 August at 5h00 UT was the strongest event of the past 24 hours. The flare originated from NOAA AR 1818, which is currently located at the west limb. NOAA AR 1820 is the strongest candidate for further C-class flaring, given it's magnetic complexity. There is a slight chance for M-class flaring. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed as observed by ACE has evolved from about 460 km/s to 520 km/s with a maximum of 580 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is varying between 5 and 10 nT, with a fluctuating Bz component between -5 and +5 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active; with both K at Dourbes and estimated NOAA Kp making excursions to K=4. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet levels in the next few hours. A new increase to active levels is predicted on 23 August in the afternoon due to the arrival of the CME of 20 August. On 24 and 25 August we expect effects of the CME of 21 August, combined with some minor influence of a fast speed stream from two small coronal holes, one in the southern hemisphere that just past the central meridian and another low latitude in the northern hemisphere currently at a central position.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：095，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 21 Aug 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	024
估計地磁Ap指數	023
估計國際太陽黑子數	100 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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