查看星期日, 13 10月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Oct 13 1220 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
13 Oct 2013	132	007
14 Oct 2013	132	014
15 Oct 2013	134	011

公告

Active conditions are foreseen for the next 48 hours, with NOAA AR 1865 being the main candidate for an isolated M class flare, as well as, but to a lesser extent, AR 1861. An M1.7 flare occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 13, 0043 UT (peak time). It was associated with a partial halo CME as observed from SOHO by LASCO. We expect the bulk of this CME to pass south of the Earth, but a partial hit is not excluded, with a possible arrival time on Oct. 16, around mid-day, triggering unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the end of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are rather quiet, with weak Bz negative excursions, linked to a sector boundary crossing.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：094，基於05個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 12 Oct 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	080 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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