查看星期四, 7 11月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Nov 07 1315 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
07 Nov 2013	156	016
08 Nov 2013	157	010
09 Nov 2013	157	006

公告

Numerous C-class flares and three M-class flares were reported since yesterday's bulletin, the strongest of them being the M3.8 flare peaking at 13:46 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890). The trailing part of this region (containing the delta sunspot) somewhat decayed, although this active region still keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect continuing flaring activity on the M-level, with an X-class flare possible, but not very likely. Due to the current high level of the proton flux and the position of the Catania sunspot group 35 approaching the solar central meridian, a proton event is probable. The solar wind speed is currently low (around 360 km/s). However, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is elevated since the early hours of today (peak value 14 nT). The currently available data does not yet allow us to conclude if this increase is due to an interaction region with a faster flow or to an ICME. The north-south IMF component reached -9 nT and stayed negative during several hours, resulting in one interval of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) as reported by Dourbes, IZMIRAN and NOAA. We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：106，基於09個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 06 Nov 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	098 - 基於07個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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