查看星期二, 12 11月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Nov 12 1322 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

公告

Since the CME-less M2.4 flare which peaked at 11:18 UT on November 11, only six C-class flares were reported. We expect M-class flares and possibly but not very probably X-class flares, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) and NOAA AR 1897. The Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) is situated in the western solar hemisphere and still has the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, therefore we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. From the currently available data it seems that the CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 08:48 UT on November 12, is possibly Earth- oriented. This will be confirmed when more data will be available. The solar wind speed is around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is about 4 nT. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours and active geomagnetic conditions late on November 13 due to arrival of the halo CME which erupted on November 10.

太陽活動指數 11 Nov 2013

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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