發布時間: 2013 Dec 09 1253 UTC
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec 2013 | 170 | 009 |
| 10 Dec 2013 | 173 | 018 |
| 11 Dec 2013 | 173 | 007 |
Flaring activity is at the same level as the previous days: the base X-ray radiation curve is situated near the bottom of the C-level. The active region which is contributed the highest probability to flare is NOAA AR 1917. The region in the northern hemisphere which rotates over the east limb (but has no NOAA NR yet) is also in the running to produce C-flares. The shock arrival of yesterday December 8 didn't cause any geomagnetic disturbance. The co-rotating interaction region (arrival on December 7) and the associated fast solar wind dominated the solar wind data. The result was a geomagnetic storm of Kp=6 early December 8. The mass ejection that was associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 7:29UT on December 7 might cause a glancing blow late today (December 9) or tomorrow (December 10).
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):096,基於12個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 166 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 016 |
| AK Wingst | 027 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 025 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 065 - 基於17個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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