查看星期日, 8 12月 2013歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2013 Dec 08 1250 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
08 Dec 2013	157	024
09 Dec 2013	157	008
10 Dec 2013	157	014

公告

The X-ray curve is situated near the top/bottom of the B/C-level. C-flares are very likely, the probability for M-flares is around 20%. The December 7 M1.2 flare (07:29UT peak time) from NOAA AR 1909 was associated with a CME. CACTus determined it as a (partial) halo CME with a speed around 900 km/s. The bulk of the plasma is ejected under the ecliptic plane. The side of the CME may impact the Earth. This glancing blow can possibly arrive late December 9, early December 10 and may result in geomagnetic disturbances. Late December 7, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) arrived. The density increased gradually together with the magnetic field. The z-component fluctuated strongly, even to -25nT which resulted in a planetary K of 6 and 5 and local K Dourbes of 5 and 4 early December 8. Following the density increase and slow decrease, the solar wind speed increased gradually. The CIR and fast solar wind is possibly linked with the coronal hole which reached the central meridian on December 3. A shock is visible on ACE data on December 8, 7:30UT: the solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to around 650 km/s, the temperature, density and magnetic field dropped. This fast reverse shock is possibly linked with the filament eruption of December 5. The geomagnetic impact will be limited and smaller compared to the CIR because of the drop in magnetic field strength. Bz rotated from negative (-5nT今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：065，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 07 Dec 2013

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	062 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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