查看星期日, 5 1月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Jan 05 1227 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
05 Jan 2014	240	005
06 Jan 2014	250	006
07 Jan 2014	250	007

公告

Two C flares and two M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. A long duration M4.0 flare occurred in the western part of NOAA AR 11944 on January 4 with peak time at 19:46 UT. An associated CME is mainly propagating southward, but more properties are difficult to determine due to a data gap in STEREO and LASCO imagery. NOAA AR 11944 continued to grow in size and number of sunspots. It currently has a beta- gamma-delta magnetic configuration of its photospheric field. A long duration M2.0 flare erupted on January 4 with peak time at 22:52 UT. The source region for this event is NOAA AR 11936, currently located at the west limb. A related CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and STEREO B coronagraphic imagery (first measurement in LASCO/C2 at 23:12 UT). Based on the current observations, the CME is mainly propagating in the northwest direction with an estimated projected speed of 520 km/s. A glancing blow might arrive at Earth on January 8 around 0:00 UT. The >10 MeV proton flux was enhanced during the past 12 hours, but remained below the threshold level. The flaring chances for the next 48 hours are high: 90% for C flares, 70% for M flares. There is also some chance for an X flare (20%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Current solar wind speed measured by ACE is around 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remains around 4 to 6 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K=0 to 2) to unsettled (K=3) (estimated NOAA Kp 1 to 2 and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：093，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 04 Jan 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	215
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	092 - 基於08個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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