發布時間: 2014 Feb 17 1323 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2014 | 154 | 011 |
| 18 Feb 2014 | 153 | 007 |
| 19 Feb 2014 | 152 | 007 |
Several C-class flares in past 24h. The strongest one was a C6.6 flare peaking at 03:04 UT. This region, and NOAA AR 1974, will likely produce more C-class and probably M-class flares. A new region rotating over the east limb is producing C-class flares also. A halo CME was first seen at 13:25 UT on February 16. This CME was a backsided event and not expected to arrive to the Earth. A C3.4 flare from NOAA AR 1977 that peaked at 14:00 UT on February 16 was related to a filament eruption, but no corresponding CME could be detected. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled in past 24h. The possible arrival of a CME from February 13 and the fast solar wind from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere may rise conditions to active levels.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):078,基於09個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 154 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 030 |
| AK Wingst | 030 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 030 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 075 - 基於20個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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