查看星期二, 18 2月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Feb 18 1324 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
18 Feb 2014	152	007
19 Feb 2014	153	007
20 Feb 2014	155	008

公告

Flaring activity has been in the C-class level in past 24h. NOAA AR 1976 produced the strongest one, a C4.7 flare with peak at 01:33 UT. The complex formed by NOAA ARs 1976, 1977 and 1980 continues to produce C-class flares. NOAA AR 1974 is rotating over the west limb, but has still potential to produce M-class flares. Therefore the warning condition for energetic protons is maintained. A full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so. There is still a small possibility that the CME from February 13 arrives to the Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：093，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 Feb 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	131
10厘米太陽通量	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	078 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀