查看星期一, 10 3月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Mar 10 1308 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
10 Mar 2014	146	009
11 Mar 2014	146	007
12 Mar 2014	146	007

公告

There were four low M flares and twelve C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, the large majority being released by NOAA AR 12002. The brightest one was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 12002 peaking at 00:26 UT on March 10. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (over 95%) and for M flares around 70%, mainly from beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 12002. An X flare is possible but unlikely. The halo CME detected by CACTUS on LASCO C2 imagery from 3:12 UT on March 9, is probably a backsided event related to an eruption in NOAA AR 11986, as can be seen in STEREO B images. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Since 12h UT on March 9, solar wind speed as observed by ACE decreased from around 340 km/s to around 270 km/s around 0h UT on March 10, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 1.5 and 4.5 nT in this period. From then onwards, solar wind speed increased again to about 340 km/s, with the magnitude of the IMF fluctuating between 1.5 and 6 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels are expected on March 10, 11, and 12.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：083，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 09 Mar 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	080 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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