查看星期六, 2 8月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Aug 02 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Aug 2014	176	011
03 Aug 2014	182	007
04 Aug 2014	186	010

公告

There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk. NOAA 2130 produced an M2 flare peaking at 14:48UT, and NOAA 2127 was the source of an M1.5 flare peaking at 18:13UT. The CME associated to this flaring activity was first observed by SOHO/LASCO at 18:36UT. This CME had a true speed of about 800 km/s, but the bulk was directed to the SE. Nonetheless, difference imagery detected the outline of a faint halo to the WSW, and was a near full halo as seen from the STEREO-A vantage point. Hence, a glancing blow of this CME can not be excluded and could impact Earth in the afternoon of 4 August. NOAA 2127, 2130 and 2132 still have areas with some mixed magnetic polarity. The CME associated to the 1 August (10:15UT) filament eruption, which took place in the same location as the 30 July filament eruption, was directed mainly to the north. It does not seem to have an Earth-directed component despite its proximity to the disk's center. Two 25-degrees long filaments in the NE and SW quadrant remained stable. C-class flaring is expected, with a chance for an M-class flare. Solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to values between 400-450 km/s. Bz oscillated between -10 and +10 nT. Local geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, with Kp briefly reaching active levels just before midnight. No obvious signature from the CME associated to the 30 July filament eruption has been observed so far in the solar wind parameters. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with locally a chance on active conditions as the solar wind may still be modulated by the 30 July CME (2 August) and the influence of a coronal hole stream (4 August).

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：123，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Aug 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	013
估計國際太陽黑子數	119 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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