查看星期三, 27 8月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Aug 27 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
27 Aug 2014	125	013
28 Aug 2014	123	010
29 Aug 2014	120	008

公告

Solar activity has decreased in the past 24 hours. Only a few C-class flares were observed, with NOAA ARs 2146, 2149 and 2151 as source regions. The largest flare was a C5.6 flare, peaking at 23:25 UT on August 26. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity is expected to continue at the level of C-flares, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. The risk for a proton event has reduced, but for the time being we leave the warning condition due to position of AR 2146 which still has a delta component. Solar wind observations indicate the arrival of an ICME around 0:00 UT of August 27, related to the CMEs of August 22. The magnitude of the magnetic field has smoothly increased from about 5 to 15 nT. The Bz component is southward with values up to -14 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 280 to 320 km/s, while there were only small variations in density and temperature. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled (local K at Dourbes=3) to active (NOAA Kp=4), which is expect to persist for the next few hours, till quiet conditions return. The potential arrival of the August 25 CMEs might cause active conditions again from the UT afternoon of August 28 onwards.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：070，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 26 Aug 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	066 - 基於10個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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