發布時間: 2014 Sep 30 1222 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2014 | 177 | 011 |
| 01 Oct 2014 | 179 | 007 |
| 02 Oct 2014 | 175 | 010 |
There are currently 10 sunspot groups on the solar disk, with two active regions approaching the east limb. However, only NOAA 2173 is producing low-level C-class flaring, the strongest being a C3.3 flare peaking at 21:32UT. NOAA 2175 and NOAA 2177 have some mixed magnetic polarities, but have remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The x-ray background flux is already 5 consecutive days above the C1-level. Two 20-degrees long filaments visible in the western solar hemisphere have remained quiet. C-class flaring is expected, with a reasonable chance on an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed varied mostly between 340 and 380 km/s, with Bz fluctuating between -7 and +5 nT. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed, with Kp having some active periods. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with locally an active period possible.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):127,基於22個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 175 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 022 |
| AK Wingst | 013 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 013 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 126 - 基於21個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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