查看星期三, 3 9月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Sep 03 1403 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
03 Sep 2014	139	011
04 Sep 2014	142	012
05 Sep 2014	147	006

公告

The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the C4.0 flare peaking at 02:53 UT today in the active region at the east-south-east limb. The corresponding sunspot group (still unnumbered by both NOAA and Catania) just appeared from behind the limb around 08:00 UT today. This active region has also just produced the M2.5 flare peaking at 13:54 UT. We expect flaring activity up to the M-level, primarily from this sunspot group and perhaps also from the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 2152) that maintains the beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A partial halo CME was detected yesterday in association with the eruption of a long filament in the northern hemisphere. The CME first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 16:36 UT, had angular width around 190 degrees and the projected plane-of-the-sky speed around 450 km/s. Despite the position of the CME source region not far from the solar disk center, the bulk of the CME material went northward of the ecliptic plane. The arrival of the corresponding ICME and even of the ICME-driven shock at the Earth is unlikely, so no resulting geomagnetic disturbance is expected. The solar proton flux has stabilized below the SEP event threshold. We maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：070，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 02 Sep 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
估計地磁Ap指數	014
估計國際太陽黑子數	078 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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