查看星期四, 23 10月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Oct 23 1257 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
23 Oct 2014	221	012
24 Oct 2014	226	012
25 Oct 2014	231	011

公告

During the past 24 hours, Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) produced an X1.6 flare (peaking yesterday at 14:28 UT) and an M1.1 flare (peaking today at 09:50 UT). These flares were not associated with CMEs. Catania sunspot group 93 (NOAA AR 2195) close to the east solar limb produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 15:57 UT, and this flare was associated only with a narrow CME. Catania sunspot group 88 will remain the main flare source as it continues to grow (this is the largest sunspot group during the two solar cycles) and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Although the sunspots of the main magnetic polarities are somewhat separating, we still expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated at the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so. Yesterday an interval of K = 5 was reported by IZMIRAN and an interval of K = 4 by Dourbes (K index according to NOAA remained at the quiet to unsettled levels with K < 4). This interval of slightly disturbed geomagnetic conditions was produced by a slow solar wind interval with predominantly negative north-south IMF component Bz.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：091，基於05個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 22 Oct 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	202
10厘米太陽通量	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
估計地磁Ap指數	017
估計國際太陽黑子數	098 - 基於16個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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