查看星期一, 3 11月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Nov 03 1244 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
03 Nov 2014	128	011
04 Nov 2014	132	011
05 Nov 2014	136	007

公告

Solar flaring activity was dominated by a yet unnumbered region currently turning around the East limb. It produced the two largest flares of the period: a C9.4 flare peaking at 21:05 UT and an M2.2 flare peaking around 11:53 UT. Four C flares (all below C5) originated from Catania group 3 (NOAA AR 2201). NOAA AR 2203 grew in size and new sunspot emergence was observed in NOAA plage region 2197 (previous Catania group 97). Flaring at C level is expected to continue and M flares remain possible from the new region turning around the East limb. No Earth directed CME's were observed during the period. The >10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES passed the event threshold a number of times for very short periods (5 to 10 minutes) at 21:10UT-21:15UT, 22:10UT-22:15UT, 22:30UT-22:40UT and 22:45UT-22:50UT. The proton flux remained below 11 pfu. The proton flux has been increasing and decreasing several times since November 1 at 14:30 UT. The sequence of several rises indicates the relation with several solar events. Further increases of the proton flux and in the next 24 hours are likely, with chances for a stronger proton event. Solar wind speed decreased during the period from close to 500 km/s after the start of the period to around 420 km/s currently. The total magnetic field also decreased from within the 3-7 nT range to the 1-4nT range, with the z-component not reaching below -4nT. Phi angle was variable. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream, solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated in the next 24 to 48 hours with associated unsettled and possibly active geomagnetic conditions.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：086，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 02 Nov 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	070 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀