查看星期五, 30 1月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Jan 30 1228 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Jan 2015	170	014
31 Jan 2015	174	016
01 Feb 2015	177	023

公告

NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 dominated the flaring activity, with a total of 10 C- and 2 M-class flares recorded over the period. NOAA 2268 was the source of the 2 M-class flares: an M2.0 flare peaking at 00:44UT and a long-duration M1.7 peaking at 05:36UT. NOAA 2277 produced a C8.4 flare peaking at 23:47UT. No CMEs seem to have been associated to these flares, and no earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Both NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 show mixed magnetic polarities. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced, probably in response to the continued M-class flaring activity. With a maximum of 1.4 pfu (07:40UT), it stayed well below the proton event threshold (10 pfu). Further M-class flaring is expected. The proton event warning remains in effect. Solar wind remained disturbed throughout the period. Solar wind speed slowly undulated between 350 and 430 km/s, the latter value prevailing for several hours around 18:00UT and again around 09:00UT. Bz was more variable between +9 and -9 nT, with a period of sustained negative values between 16:00 and 19:00UT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled, with an episode of active and locally even minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) between 19:00UT and 23:00UT. Further disturbances in the the solar wind are possible from other CH HSS, in particular from the extension of a southern polar CH which is currently passing the CM and expected to influence the geomagnetic field possibly as soon as 31 January. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions, with a possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm on 31 January and/or 01 February.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：114，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Jan 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	200
10厘米太陽通量	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	013
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	111 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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