查看星期六, 3 1月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Jan 03 1220 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
03 Jan 2015	152	020
04 Jan 2015	158	034
05 Jan 2015	162	034

公告

During the last 24 hours, NOAA 2253 has further increased in sunspot area and developed a mature delta structure in its leading portion. This was accompanied by an increase in flaring frequency and intensity from this region, resulting in 7 C-class flares and a rather impulsive M1.1 flare peaking at 09:47UT, the strongest event of the period. No coronal dimming or type II radioburst was observed, but further coronagraphic imagery is needed to assess any associated CME. The other regions were mostly quiet. Further M-class flaring from NOAA 2253 is likely. Solar wind speed decreased from an initial 430 km/s to 370 km/s around 01:00UT, before increasing again to values near 470 km/s at the end of the period. From 15:30UT till 00:30UT, Bz was negative with values near -10 nT. From then on, Bz fluctuated wildly between -10 and +10 nT. In Dourbes, the sustained negative Bz values resulted in mostly active geomagnetic conditions from 19:00UT till 04:00UT. Also, Kp was at minor geomagnetic storm levels (Kp=5) between 21:00UT and 24:00UT. The source of this solar wind disturbance may have been the sooner than anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from the extension of the southern polar coronal hole. During the next few days, the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：076，基於05個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 02 Jan 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	016
估計地磁Ap指數	015
估計國際太陽黑子數	091 - 基於21個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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