查看星期二, 31 3月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
31 Mar 2015	132	017
01 Apr 2015	128	020
02 Apr 2015	125	008

公告

Flaring activity during the last 24 hours was limited to four C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C4.1 flare peaking at 22:05 UT on March 30 originating from the NOAA active region (AR) 2303, located right behind the west limb. We expect flaring activity at the low C-level in the next 48 hours, potentially from NOAA ARs 2315 and 2316. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The Earth is still inside a slow solar wind flow. A shock-like signature was observed in the solar wind data observed by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS. Solar wind speed (to about 400 km/s), density and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) jumped at around 7:40 UT on March 31. The z-component of the IMF is varying between -13 and +11 nT. The solar source of this disturbance in the solar wind is unclear at this moment. A CME from March 27 (first measurement in LASCO-C2 at 13:36 UT) and a CME of March 28 (fist detected in LASCO-C2 around 10:37 UT) are two potentially associated events. No geomagnetic disturbances are noted yet. Geomagnetic activity up to the minor storm level is expected, due to the combined influence of the arrived shock-like structure and the fast flow from a low-latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole, which is expected to arrive in the course of today.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：031，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 30 Mar 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	060
10厘米太陽通量	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	042 - 基於27個觀測站

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