查看星期四, 14 5月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 May 14 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
14 May 2015	153	014
15 May 2015	150	015
16 May 2015	148	015

公告

The eruption of a filament near NOAA 2345 was accompanied by the strongest flaring event of the period, a C9.2 flare peaking on 13 May at 18:18UT. Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) was directed to the north and away from Earth. However, difference imagery (CACTus) shows the faint outline of an asymmetric halo CME having a plane-of-the-sky speed of about 240 km/s. Provided this is not from a backside event, an impact from the shock is possible on 18 May, but the geomagnetic effects are expected to be limited. NOAA 2339 produced 2 low-level C-class flares near its leading sunspots, while the other regions were quiet. The other observed CMEs had no earth-directed component.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed slowly undulated around 700 km/s as a result of the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent coronal hole. Bz-values were small and varied mostly between -6 and +4 nT. Only quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：121，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 May 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	200
10厘米太陽通量	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	040
估計地磁Ap指數	042
估計國際太陽黑子數	122 - 基於26個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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