查看星期五, 15 5月 2015歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2015 May 15 1230 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 May 2015	140	011
16 May 2015	138	012
17 May 2015	136	018

公告

NOAA 2339 and 2342 were the only sunspot regions actively producing low-level C-class flares. NOAA 2339 was the source of the strongest flare of the period, a C4.8 peaking at 17:53UT. Some opposite polarity flux has emerged in its trailing section. NOAA 2342 produced two C2 flares peaking resp. at 14:08UT and 00:11UT, related to eruptive phases of the group filament. An active region is rounding the southeast solar limb and was responsible for a C1 flare (06:50UT). No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed declined from its initial value near 700 km/s to its current 530 km/s as Earth is gradually exiting the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH). Bz oscillated mostly between -4 and +4 nT. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. A recurrent positive polarity CH is transiting the central meridian.

The arrival of the 13 May CME is expected late 17 - early 18 May, slightly preceding or nearly coinciding with the expected arrival of the HSS from the aforementioned positive CH. Until then, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance on an active episode.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：090，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 May 2015

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	119 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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