查看星期四, 30 9月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Sep 30 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Sep 2021	102	013
01 Oct 2021	102	016
02 Oct 2021	102	007

公告

Four active regions (ARs) present on the visible solar disk. NOAA AR 2877 and 2880 have beta-gamma magnetic field configuration. The former produced three C-class flares, the strongest being a C2.8 flare peaking at 21:56 UT on 29 September. There is one more AR rotating into view from the east limb (in the southern hemisphere) that could also contribute to solar activity. Over the next 24 hours, more C-class flares can be expected and M-class flares are possible.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay there in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, it may increase over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours, it may increase over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind at the Earth has a speed of 400 km/s with magnetic field intensity around 3 nT. Over the next 24 hours we expect an ICME to arrive.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and K Dourbes 0-3) over the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm conditions can be expected with the arrival of the CME from 28 September.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：043，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Sep 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	119
10厘米太陽通量	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	069 - 基於28個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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