查看星期三, 27 10月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Oct 27 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
27 Oct 2021	110	003
28 Oct 2021	100	004
29 Oct 2021	090	007

公告

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare detected on 16 Oct 15:57 UT at N13E89 (possibly NOAA returning active region 2885). Several C-class flares were detected from NOAA Active Region (AR) 2887 (Beta magnetic configuration) and from the two returning ARs, while NOAA 2889 (Beta magnetic configuration) produced one C-class flare. The ARs 2886, 2888 (both with Alpha magnetic configuration) and 2890 (Beta magnetic configuration) did not produced any significant activity. Several C-class flares are expected for the next 24 hours (mostly from the NOAA AR 2887 and the two returning ARs), and there is a good chance of one or more M-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery. A few CMEs and outward flows were detected by CACTUS from SOHO/LASCO-C2 data during the last 24 hours, however those events took place at the east of the solar limb and they are not expected to be geo- effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed (as measured by DSCOVR) increased from 310 to 420 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to around 7 nT, while the Bz varied between -4 and +5 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes indices 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：101，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 26 Oct 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	086 - 基於29個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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