查看星期日, 26 12月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Dec 26 1251 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
26 Dec 2021	131	004
27 Dec 2021	130	015
28 Dec 2021	125	014

公告

Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with nine low C-class flares and seven numbered active regions on the visible disc. The most complex active region at present is NOAA 2916, which further increased in area developing new trailing stops and is now classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. Despite its development and magnetic complexity NOAA 2916 has not produced any significant flaring activity over the past 24 hours. NOAA 2918 (beta) grew in area increasing its number of trailing spots and was responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. It produced the strongest flaring over the period — a C3.3-class flare with peak time 13:30 UTC on Dec 25th. NOAA 2907 has now rotated behind the west limb and continues to produce flaring activity from there. NOAA 2908 has decayed into a single unipolar spot and is expected to rotate over the west limb over the next 24 hours. NOAA 2909 has decayed into plage and is also approaching the west limb. NOAA 2915 decreased in size and number of spots and is now classified as magnetic type alpha. A new simple unipolar active region located near S11E64 has rotated from behind the east limb yesterday and is now classified as NOAA 2919 alpha. The X-ray flare activity is expected to be mostly at low levels for the next 24 hours with increasing chances for M-class flaring and a small chance of X-class flare mainly from NOAA 2916.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was oscillating around the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to sporadically exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence started approaching nominal and is expected to be at the border of moderate to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours all solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) showed decline towards background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased to 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field took values in range of 2.6 nT and 5.8 nT. The Bz-component varied between -4.6 and 2.9 nT. The polarity of the magnetic field remained predominantly in the negative sector. The solar wind parameters are expected to be at background solar wind conditions for the rest of the day until the arrival of an expected high-speed stream (HSS) tomorrow.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally, in Belgium, quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hour and unsettled to active conditions are expected after with possible isolated minor storms during the arrival of the HSS.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：089，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 25 Dec 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	109 - 基於11個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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