查看星期一, 29 11月 2021歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2021 Nov 29 1238 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Nov 2021	093	015
30 Nov 2021	094	005
01 Dec 2021	094	010

公告

Solar activity was at very low levels over the past 24 hours. There are three Active Regions (AR) visible on the Sun. NOAA AR 2899 has now rotated over the west limb, while a new simple region (NOAA AR 2901, alpha magnetic field configuration) has emerged in the North East quadrant. NOAA AR 2898 and 2900 are the largest regions on disk, both with beta magnetic field configuration. There is estimated to be a 50 percent probability of C-class flares in the next 24 hours.

There was a filament eruption observed in the southern hemisphere, visible from 06UT Nov 29. The bulk of the eruption appears to be directed to the south of the Sun-Earth line but a full analysis will be made when coronagraph data become available. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The magnetic field was enhanced at the start of the period, due to the ongoing passage of the ICME that arrived on Nov 27. The magnetic field gradually decreased from 12 to 5 nT over the past 24 hours. Bz varied between -7 and 9 nT, with an extended period of negative Bz between 16UT Nov 28 and 05UT Nov 29. The solar wind speed remained low, oscillating around 390 km/s.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on Nov 29 and Nov 30.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：039，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Nov 2021

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	011
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	044 - 基於13個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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